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J. R. Fox wrote:  
>   
> I've been putting a lot of reliance into the  
> medium of CDs, for storage, backup, etc.  It is  
> quite possible this reliance has been misplaced.  
 
Foxey,  
 
You are correct that CDs and DVDs may not have a long life expectancy.  
 
-- 1. The materials design of CDs and DVDs has a known chemical  
breakdown lifetime.  All materials do.  Did you know that concrete has a  
typical lifespan of only 100 years?  (Caveat: there are a myriad of  
different formulations for concrete to make it stiff, spongey,  
lightweight, waterproof etc and the different formulations have  
different life expectancies.)  
 
-- 2. Manufacturing quality control.  There isn't a single CD or DVD  
that's ever been manufactured which exactly met its specifications.  The  
tolerance drift is maddening but it's the best they can do.  Any given  
platter might be far enough out of tolerance that the life expectancy is  
noticeably lower than desired.  I'm not just talking about the final  
manufacturing stage; there are a number of suppliers who create the  
materials used for the manufacturer, and then there's the tolerance of  
the equipment used for the final manufacture.  I have a lot of  
experience with a prior technology -- magnetic tape -- and you would be  
aaaaamazed that we ever were able to record anything at all.  As for CDs  
and DVDs, an article of mine published years ago is probably still  
apropo:  Do you really think that the center hole is truly in the center  
of the disc?  'Cause it ain't.  And that can make playback a bit  
problematic if your current player is also on the outer limits of  
manufacturing quality control.  
 
-- 3. Storage of finished materials.  Temperature fluctuations cause  
material stress.  Humidity causes the label adhesive to creep.  Changes  
in reflectivity over time.  
 
-- 4. An article a few weeks ago in either the Los Angeles Times or The  
Daily News reported that CDs are actually eaten by some weird  
andromeda-strain microbe even under ideal storage conditions.  If you've  
had any visitors from Andromeda you need to start worrying about your  
CDs _now_.  
 
Everything should be backed up, and that includes your CD and DVD  
collection.  I recommend backup to hard drive because it's easy to  
administer, easy to copy, easy to restore (just store the ISO image).   
The cost of hard drive storage is somewhere around 50 cents for a  
gigabyte (I bought a 250 GB Western Digital IDE drive on sale at Fry's  
last week for $119, no rebate required).  That's about 35 cents to make  
a copy of a full CD or much less if the CD isn't full.  
 
- Peter  
 
 
 
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